Finance

Executive summary

An energy shock from renewed US–Iran strikes has lifted Brent to $95.69 and pushed global headline inflation to 3.8%, likely hardening Fed, ECB and BoE reaction functions and delaying any policy easing, with rate hikes back on the table if disruptions persist. The Federal Reserve’s proposed limited‑purpose Payment Account would open Fedwire/FedNow to eligible fintech and crypto firms while ring‑fencing central‑bank credit, signaling structural erosion of banks’ payment monopolies without extending safety nets. BIS‑led Project Agorá has proven atomic, multi‑currency settlement using tokenised reserves and deposits and is moving to real‑value tests, forcing regulators to address AML, data and settlement‑finality constraints. Strong US manufacturing alongside 3.8% CPI/PCE makes pre‑Q4 cuts unlikely, embedding a higher‑for‑longer yield environment and prompting rotation toward energy and AI beneficiaries while fuel‑intensive travel lags.