Fed’s ‘silent era’ meets hot CPI; markets lean toward a September hike

Chair Kevin Warsh has scrapped explicit forward guidance and declined to submit a personal dot, pushing investors to infer policy from data and market pricing. With August core CPI at 0.3% m/m and futures assigning ~86% odds to a 25 bp hike on 15–16 September, the two‑year vs. fed funds gap has widened as markets price catch‑up risk.