Politics

Executive summary

Escalation in West Asia alongside the Strait of Hormuz closure is likely to keep a material share of global oil supply offline beyond near‑term official projections, embedding stagflation risk and reordering energy investment. Confusion over Iranian President Pezeshkian’s reported resignation and swift denials indicate IRGC consolidation, raising the probability of more confrontational Iranian behavior at sea and across proxies. In parallel, the May Trump–Xi reset signals a U.S. shift from constraining to accommodating China’s parity, while G7 divisions over whether to invite Xi to Evian expose a weakening collective capacity on economic security. In Washington, NDAA Section 224 points to a durable U.S.–Israel defense‑industrial fusion—including AI, cyber, and data access—likely to operate with limited public transparency.