Politics

Executive summary

Renewed US strikes on Iran are likely within weeks absent a deal: Washington is demanding the destruction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and the immediate reopening of a Strait of Hormuz that has been effectively closed for three months, keeping Brent elevated near $91. The United States is formalizing a structural pivot toward the Indo-Pacific, pressing Europe to fund primary responsibility for its own conventional defense under a 5% of GDP target and beginning a 5,000‑troop withdrawal from Germany. Russia has intensified covert acquisition of Western dual‑use technology via fronts, intermediaries, and cyber operations, underscoring gaps in export controls. The US pause of a $14 billion Taiwan air‑defense package—officially tied to munitions needs in the Iran war but also discussed as leverage with Beijing—signals a probable short‑term erosion of US security assurances to Taipei.