Politics

Executive summary

A tentative 60-day US–Iran ceasefire faces a narrow path: Hormuz remains closed under Iranian conditions and Washington is pressing for tougher terms, leaving energy logistics and ECB‑flagged financial fragilities exposed. Israel’s deepest push into Lebanon in 26 years has effectively voided the April ceasefire and widened the risk envelope to a multi-front confrontation involving Hezbollah and Iran. Europe is codifying a doctrine of “reactive assertiveness,” preparing Section‑301‑style trade tools, supplier‑cap rules, and a protectionist Industrial Accelerator Act that will rewire supply chains. At the Shangri‑La Dialogue, US pressure for burden‑sharing met allied calls for unity, signalling a more coalition‑based but less US‑centric security architecture.