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May 26, 2026 · Evening edition
The United States carried out defensive strikes on missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran on May 25, prompting Iran to denounce the actions as a sign of 'bad faith' and a violation of the seven-week ceasefire. Despite these escalations, negotiations for a peace deal to end the war are ongoing in Qatar, with discussions focusing on Iran's nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a ceasefire in Lebanon. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have offered conflicting statements on the progress of these talks. The renewed tensions contributed to a rebound in oil prices due to uncertainty over global energy supplies from the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets have put already fragile peace negotiations under new pressure, deepening uncertainty across the Middle East and adding to global concern over energy supplies, inflation and financial stability.
The United States carried out what it described as defensive strikes on missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran on May 25. Iran denounced the action as evidence of “bad faith” and a violation of a seven-week ceasefire, warning of consequences as talks continued in Qatar.
Those negotiations are focused on a broader peace deal that includes Iran’s nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire in Lebanon. But the diplomatic track has been complicated by mixed signals from Washington: President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have offered conflicting accounts of the progress being made, while Iran has said contradictory U.S. statements are hindering the talks.
The stakes extend well beyond the immediate military exchange. The renewed tensions have helped drive a rebound in oil prices, reflecting market concern over global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway’s status has become one of the central questions in the Qatar discussions, underscoring how quickly regional escalation can feed into wider economic risks.
The Lebanon front is adding another layer of pressure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “crush” the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia and escalate strikes in southern Lebanon. The Israeli operations follow the U.S. strikes on Iran and come as Tehran insists that any wider agreement include a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon. Lebanese media reported at least 10 casualties from recent Israeli airstrikes.
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In Europe, Russia’s war against Ukraine also showed signs of renewed escalation. Moscow threatened systematic strikes on Kyiv City, a move described as violating a recent Victory Day ceasefire and aimed at projecting strength. The Kremlin said the threats were retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian strike against civilians. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin enacted a law on May 25 authorizing the use of Russia’s armed forces overseas to protect “Russian citizens” facing prosecution in international or foreign national courts.
The combination of military escalation and geopolitical uncertainty is feeding into broader warnings about the global economy. Experts and international financial institutions have raised concerns about the risk of a global financial crisis, citing geopolitical instability and the danger of an inadequate policy response. The European Central Bank reported that inflation has risen to 3% and is projected to climb further, driven largely by persistent increases in oil and gas prices and moving beyond its “adverse scenario.” The International Monetary Fund has also pointed to slowing global growth, stronger inflation pressures and regional economic disruptions in the Middle East linked to energy and trade.
Together, the developments leave diplomats trying to preserve negotiations in Qatar while military actions in Iran, Lebanon and Ukraine raise the cost of failure. The immediate question is whether the U.S.-Iran talks can survive the latest strikes. The broader risk is that regional conflicts and energy shocks converge into a wider political and economic crisis.
The United States carried out what it described as defensive strikes on missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran on May 25, adding new pressure to already fragile negotiations aimed at ending the wa…
Read full articleIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “crush” the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, as Israel intensified military operations in southern Lebanon.
Read full articleRussia has issued threats of systematic strikes on Kyiv City, a move described in the research as violating a recent Victory Day ceasefire and intended to project strength.
Read full articleExperts and international financial institutions are warning of rising risks to the global economy as geopolitical instability, inflation and energy shocks converge.
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